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Google · Pixel A

Pixel 11a

Not out yet. Here is when we think it lands, and exactly why we think so.

Reveal

The day it is shown to the world

Early days · Could still move by months

11 February 2027

in about 6 months

Almost certainly between 24 November 2026 and 2 May 2027 — that is where eight out of ten of our guesses land.

most likelyAug 2026Aug 202724 Nov2 May
Where it will almost certainly land Still possible, but unlikelyThe higher the shape, the more likely that date.
Where we started Its own release rhythm This line has launched on a steady schedule, so we started from when the next one is due.
Reports behind it 1 separate story Found across 1 article. When several sites repeat the same leak, we count it once — otherwise one rumour would look like proof.
Since last time No change Last worked out on 19 Aug 2026. We recheck every day.

What changed our mind

  1. GSMArena
    Reported

    Says revealed between 1 Nov 2026 and 30 Apr 2027

    “There will be a Pixel 11a, but not for a few months.” Read it ↗
    Decent track record Moved our date 15 days earlier
Numbers, for the curious

The 80% range runs 24 Nov 2026 to 2 May 2027 (159 days wide), with a standard deviation of 61 days. Starting model: series_cadence+coupled (reveal and on-sale dates were solved together, so neither can end up before the other).

Ledger hash 5508050f90b50a893d5dd2b3…

On sale

The day you can actually buy one

Early days · Could still move by months

20 February 2027

in about 6 months

Almost certainly between 3 December 2026 and 10 May 2027 — that is where eight out of ten of our guesses land.

most likelyAug 2026Sept 20273 Dec10 May
Where it will almost certainly land Still possible, but unlikelyThe higher the shape, the more likely that date.
Where we started When Google usually launches No pattern for this model yet, so we started from the time of year Google normally picks.
Reports behind it 1 separate story Found across 1 article. When several sites repeat the same leak, we count it once — otherwise one rumour would look like proof.
Since last time No change Last worked out on 19 Aug 2026. We recheck every day.

What changed our mind

  1. GSMArena
    Reported

    Says on sale between 1 Nov 2026 and 30 Apr 2027

    “There will be a Pixel 11a, but not for a few months.” Read it ↗
    Decent track record Moved our date 116 days earlier
Numbers, for the curious

The 80% range runs 3 Dec 2026 to 10 May 2027 (158 days wide), with a standard deviation of 61 days. Starting model: manufacturer_seasonal+coupled (reveal and on-sale dates were solved together, so neither can end up before the other).

Ledger hash 0be9de72353214080a086327…

Where you will be able to buy it

Probably worldwide Based on how this product line usually launches

Going on what this line normally does, not on anything said about this phone yet.

Pixel normally launches worldwide.

No report so far has named a specific country for this one. That is normal early on: the market is usually only spelled out close to launch.

How this date has moved

Every time we changed our mind, we wrote it down and never touched it again.

  1. 20 February 2027 On sale First guess

    Worked out on 19 Aug 2026 · range 3 Dec 2026 to 10 May 2027 · 0be9de7235…

  2. 11 February 2027 Reveal First guess

    Worked out on 19 Aug 2026 · range 24 Nov 2026 to 2 May 2027 · 5508050f90…

Not sure what any of this means? Here is how it all works, in plain English.