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P1

Google · Pixel A

Pixel 11a

Not out yet. Here is when we think it lands, and exactly why we think so.

Reveal

The day it is shown to the world

Early days · Could still move by months

13 March 2026

about 7 months ago

Almost certainly between 11 February 2026 and 1 March 2027 — that is where eight out of ten of our guesses land.

Where it will almost certainly land Still possible, but unlikelyThe higher the shape, the more likely that date.
Where we started Its own release rhythm This line has launched on a steady schedule, so we started from when the next one is due.
Reports behind it 7 separate stories Found across 11 articles. When several sites repeat the same leak, we count it once — otherwise one rumour would look like proof.
Since last time 1 day later Last changed on 4 Oct 2026. We recheck every day, and only write a new forecast down when this answer moves.

What changed our mind

  1. Samsung Global Newsroom · picked up by GizmoChina
    Called a rumour Heard it from someone else

    Says revealed sometime between March and May 2027

    “The Google Pixel 11a could arrive in spring 2027 with a higher price than the current model.” Read it ↗
    Strong track record Moved our date 338 days later

    Samsung Global Newsroom usually calls things later than they happen, so we pulled this 19 days earlier before believing it.

  2. FoneArena
    Guesswork

    Says revealed sometime between January and March 2027

    “The Pixel 11a will likely be more than the Pixel 10a’s launch price due to the increase in memory cost, so it could start at USD 600 price point when it launches in Q1 2027.” Read it ↗
    Strong track record Moved our date 336 days later

    FoneArena usually calls things later than they happen, so we pulled this 2 days earlier before believing it.

  3. Leaks · picked up by GSMArena
    Guesswork Heard it from someone else

    Says revealed sometime in March 2027

    “We can probably expect some time in March 2027.” Read it ↗
    Brand new source Moved our date 1 day later

    Leaks usually calls things later than they happen, so we pulled this 14 days earlier before believing it.

  4. The Verge
    Guesswork

    Says revealed sometime between March and May 2026

    “which is expected in Spring 2026 in line with the previous midrange launches.” Read it ↗
    Decent track record +1 site repeated it Moved our date 6 days earlier

    The Verge usually calls things earlier than they happen, so we pushed this 0 days later before believing it.

  5. Android Headlines
    Guesswork

    Says revealed sometime between February and March 2026

    “The Google Pixel 11a is expected to be announced in the Spring, as its predecessors were.” Read it ↗
    Strong track record +3 sites repeated it Moved our date 6 days earlier

    Android Headlines usually calls things later than they happen, so we pulled this 9 days earlier before believing it.

  6. Android Headlines
    Guesswork

    Says revealed sometime between February and March 2026

    “We expect it will launch in February or March, with it going on sale a few weeks later.” Read it ↗
    Strong track record Moved our date 6 days earlier

    Android Headlines usually calls things later than they happen, so we pulled this 9 days earlier before believing it.

  7. Android Headlines
    Guesswork

    Says revealed sometime between February and March 2026

    “The Google Pixel 11a is slated to be announced in February or March, on store shelves a few weeks later – likely before mid-March.” Read it ↗
    Strong track record Moved our date 6 days earlier

    Android Headlines usually calls things later than they happen, so we pulled this 9 days earlier before believing it.

Numbers, for the curious

The 80% range runs 11 Feb 2026 to 1 Mar 2027 (383 days wide), with a standard deviation of 173 days. Starting model: series_cadence+coupled (reveal and on-sale dates were solved together, so neither can end up before the other).

Ledger hash f639782e6ad7777387cbfeef…

On sale

The day you can actually buy one

Early days · Could still move by months

21 March 2026

about 7 months ago

Almost certainly between 20 February 2026 and 10 March 2027 — that is where eight out of ten of our guesses land.

Where it will almost certainly land Still possible, but unlikelyThe higher the shape, the more likely that date.
Where we started When Google usually launches No pattern for this model yet, so we started from the time of year Google normally picks.
Reports behind it 7 separate stories Found across 11 articles. When several sites repeat the same leak, we count it once — otherwise one rumour would look like proof.
Since last time 3 days earlier Last changed on 1 Oct 2026. We recheck every day, and only write a new forecast down when this answer moves.

What changed our mind

  1. Samsung Global Newsroom · picked up by GizmoChina
    Called a rumour Heard it from someone else

    Says on sale sometime between March and May 2027

    “The Google Pixel 11a could arrive in spring 2027 with a higher price than the current model.” Read it ↗
    Strong track record Moved our date 5 days later

    Samsung Global Newsroom usually calls things later than they happen, so we pulled this 19 days earlier before believing it.

  2. FoneArena
    Guesswork

    Says on sale sometime between January and March 2027

    “The Pixel 11a will likely be more than the Pixel 10a’s launch price due to the increase in memory cost, so it could start at USD 600 price point when it launches in Q1 2027.” Read it ↗
    Strong track record Moved our date 5 days later

    FoneArena usually calls things later than they happen, so we pulled this 2 days earlier before believing it.

  3. Leaks · picked up by GSMArena
    Guesswork Heard it from someone else

    Says on sale sometime in March 2027

    “We can probably expect some time in March 2027.” Read it ↗
    Brand new source Moved our date 2 days later

    Leaks usually calls things later than they happen, so we pulled this 14 days earlier before believing it.

  4. The Verge
    Guesswork

    Says on sale sometime between March and May 2026

    “which is expected in Spring 2026 in line with the previous midrange launches.” Read it ↗
    Decent track record +1 site repeated it Moved our date 82 days earlier

    The Verge usually calls things earlier than they happen, so we pushed this 0 days later before believing it.

  5. Android Headlines
    Guesswork

    Says on sale sometime between February and March 2026

    “The Google Pixel 11a is slated to be announced in February or March, on store shelves a few weeks later – likely before mid-March.” Read it ↗
    Strong track record Moved our date 359 days earlier

    Android Headlines usually calls things later than they happen, so we pulled this 9 days earlier before believing it.

  6. Android Headlines
    Guesswork

    Says on sale sometime between February and March 2026

    “The Google Pixel 11a is expected to be announced in the Spring, as its predecessors were.” Read it ↗
    Strong track record +3 sites repeated it Moved our date 359 days earlier

    Android Headlines usually calls things later than they happen, so we pulled this 9 days earlier before believing it.

  7. Android Headlines
    Guesswork

    Says on sale sometime between February and March 2026

    “We expect it will launch in February or March, with it going on sale a few weeks later.” Read it ↗
    Strong track record Moved our date 359 days earlier

    Android Headlines usually calls things later than they happen, so we pulled this 9 days earlier before believing it.

Numbers, for the curious

The 80% range runs 20 Feb 2026 to 10 Mar 2027 (383 days wide), with a standard deviation of 173 days. Starting model: manufacturer_seasonal+coupled (reveal and on-sale dates were solved together, so neither can end up before the other).

Ledger hash c07e3c442a1de42c40e99d43…

Prices reported elsewhere

Currencies we have a price for but no matching launch market. As reported, in the currency they were quoted in — we never convert between currencies, because a converted figure is a number nobody actually printed.

yuan Rumoured

from ¥599

A leaked figure. Prices move late, so treat it loosely.

1 source, 1 report

US dollar Rumoured

from $600

A leaked figure. Prices move late, so treat it loosely.

1 source, 1 report

What the hardware is

11 of 20 headline specs known so far. Values from a spec database describe a phone that exists; values from articles are what sources claim about one that does not yet. Each row says which it is, and where sources contradict each other we print both figures rather than choosing.

3 specs are reported two different ways. Those rows are marked below.

display

Refresh rate
60 Hz Sources disagree 2 sources also reported as 120 Hz
Resolution
1080p Rumoured 2 sources
Screen size
6.3" ✓ 3 sources
Panel type
OLED Rumoured

performance

Chipset
Tensor G6 Sources disagree 4 sources also reported as GoogleTensor G6

memory

Storage
128 GB Rumoured

battery

Battery
4870 mAh Sources disagree 3 sources also reported as 5100 mAh, 5000 mAh

body

Height
153.46 mm Rumoured 2 sources
Thickness
9 mm Rumoured
Width
72.35 mm Rumoured 2 sources

software

Operating system
Android 17 Rumoured

Still unknown: ram, main camera, front camera, rear cameras, wired charging, weight, ingress protection, 5g, nfc.

Where you will be able to buy it

Probably worldwide Based on how this product line usually launches

Going on what this line normally does, not on anything said about this phone yet.

Pixel normally launches worldwide.

No report so far has named a specific country for this one. That is normal early on: the market is usually only spelled out close to launch.

How this date has moved

Every time we changed our mind, we wrote it down and never touched it again.

  1. 13 March 2026 Reveal 1 day later

    Worked out on 4 Oct 2026 · range 11 Feb 2026 to 1 Mar 2027 · f639782e6a…

  2. 21 March 2026 On sale 3 days earlier

    Worked out on 1 Oct 2026 · range 20 Feb 2026 to 10 Mar 2027 · c07e3c442a…

  3. 12 March 2026 Reveal 3 days earlier

    Worked out on 1 Oct 2026 · range 11 Feb 2026 to 1 Mar 2027 · d958362a1c…

  4. 24 March 2026 On sale 18 days later

    Worked out on 30 Sept 2026 · range 20 Feb 2026 to 12 Mar 2027 · 892c750d3a…

  5. 15 March 2026 Reveal 19 days later

    Worked out on 30 Sept 2026 · range 12 Feb 2026 to 2 Mar 2027 · 29ba770635…

  6. 6 March 2026 On sale 1 day later

    Worked out on 30 Sept 2026 · range 16 Feb 2026 to 28 Mar 2026 · f9cc5a0783…

  7. 24 February 2026 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 30 Sept 2026 · range 7 Feb 2026 to 19 Mar 2026 · 69681779d4…

  8. 5 March 2026 On sale 350 days earlier

    Worked out on 29 Sept 2026 · range 16 Feb 2026 to 25 Mar 2026 · b09e3d8af6…

  9. 24 February 2026 Reveal 350 days earlier

    Worked out on 29 Sept 2026 · range 8 Feb 2026 to 17 Mar 2026 · 48279c6d5e…

  10. 9 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 23 Sept 2026 · range 4 Dec 2026 to 9 May 2027 · 36f8fa5b7e…

  11. 18 February 2027 On sale No change

    Worked out on 19 Sept 2026 · range 13 Dec 2026 to 18 May 2027 · 69b32db658…

  12. 9 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 17 Sept 2026 · range 5 Dec 2026 to 9 May 2027 · f335c1520a…

  13. 18 February 2027 On sale No change

    Worked out on 6 Sept 2026 · range 13 Dec 2026 to 17 May 2027 · fb4c9a3891…

  14. 9 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 6 Sept 2026 · range 5 Dec 2026 to 8 May 2027 · 2cbf2fa54d…

  15. 18 February 2027 On sale No change

    Worked out on 5 Sept 2026 · range 13 Dec 2026 to 17 May 2027 · 902193cc08…

  16. 9 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 5 Sept 2026 · range 5 Dec 2026 to 8 May 2027 · 1c7b64674a…

  17. 18 February 2027 On sale No change

    Worked out on 4 Sept 2026 · range 13 Dec 2026 to 17 May 2027 · ff23abb394…

  18. 9 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 4 Sept 2026 · range 5 Dec 2026 to 8 May 2027 · 5d9f076ec7…

  19. 18 February 2027 On sale 13 days earlier

    Worked out on 3 Sept 2026 · range 13 Dec 2026 to 18 May 2027 · 0595f38d53…

  20. 9 February 2027 Reveal 13 days earlier

    Worked out on 3 Sept 2026 · range 5 Dec 2026 to 9 May 2027 · b5a76eb2ee…

  21. 3 March 2027 On sale No change

    Worked out on 3 Sept 2026 · range 4 Feb 2027 to 1 Apr 2027 · 2a22413325…

  22. 22 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 3 Sept 2026 · range 26 Jan 2027 to 23 Mar 2027 · 6b9ef8d554…

  23. 3 March 2027 On sale No change

    Worked out on 2 Sept 2026 · range 4 Feb 2027 to 1 Apr 2027 · d9347f3dbe…

  24. 22 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 2 Sept 2026 · range 26 Jan 2027 to 23 Mar 2027 · 44eaac830c…

  25. 3 March 2027 On sale 1 day earlier

    Worked out on 2 Sept 2026 · range 4 Feb 2027 to 1 Apr 2027 · 9a7b5e6f9c…

  26. 22 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 2 Sept 2026 · range 26 Jan 2027 to 22 Mar 2027 · ccd00e80e6…

  27. 4 March 2027 On sale 1 day later

    Worked out on 1 Sept 2026 · range 4 Feb 2027 to 1 Apr 2027 · 80c2bda341…

  28. 22 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 1 Sept 2026 · range 26 Jan 2027 to 23 Mar 2027 · 34b6d26b7c…

  29. 3 March 2027 On sale No change

    Worked out on 1 Sept 2026 · range 3 Feb 2027 to 1 Apr 2027 · 1d78471641…

  30. 22 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 1 Sept 2026 · range 25 Jan 2027 to 23 Mar 2027 · ba2853e6b8…

  31. 3 March 2027 On sale No change

    Worked out on 31 Aug 2026 · range 3 Feb 2027 to 1 Apr 2027 · e1570e1a49…

  32. 22 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 31 Aug 2026 · range 25 Jan 2027 to 23 Mar 2027 · 58d36db7c3…

  33. 3 March 2027 On sale No change

    Worked out on 30 Aug 2026 · range 3 Feb 2027 to 1 Apr 2027 · c0f16fa483…

  34. 22 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 30 Aug 2026 · range 25 Jan 2027 to 23 Mar 2027 · 4cc79d96e9…

  35. 3 March 2027 On sale No change

    Worked out on 29 Aug 2026 · range 3 Feb 2027 to 1 Apr 2027 · a812e2a117…

  36. 22 February 2027 Reveal No change

    Worked out on 29 Aug 2026 · range 26 Jan 2027 to 23 Mar 2027 · a8360b706b…

  37. 3 March 2027 On sale 2 days earlier

    Worked out on 28 Aug 2026 · range 4 Feb 2027 to 1 Apr 2027 · 1c1793a848…

  38. 22 February 2027 Reveal 1 day earlier

    Worked out on 28 Aug 2026 · range 26 Jan 2027 to 23 Mar 2027 · d0fa228740…

  39. 5 March 2027 On sale No change

    Worked out on 27 Aug 2026 · range 8 Feb 2027 to 31 Mar 2027 · 970b926df1…

  40. 23 February 2027 Reveal 1 day earlier

    Worked out on 27 Aug 2026 · range 30 Jan 2027 to 22 Mar 2027 · 79cc983b0f…

Other names this device goes by

Codenames used by leakers: Formosan

Not sure what any of this means? Here is how it all works, in plain English.