Who actually gets it right
Anyone can say the next iPhone lands in September. Everybody knows that. So we only give credit for the part nobody could have guessed from the calendar — and we work it out after the fact, once the phone is really out.
Being right about something obvious earns nothing.
One lucky guess never puts anyone at the top.
Scores fade over time, because leakers go cold.
- 1 GizmoChina Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 5.9 days typically off by
- 0.73 days early leans
- 8 days ahead when they call it
- 106 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 17 times, right 94% of the time, off by 9.5 days on average
- Reported said it 41 times, right 85% of the time, off by 7.8 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 46 times, right 94% of the time, off by 3 days on average
- Guesswork said it 2 times, right 100% of the time, off by 5 days on average
- 2 GSMArena Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 6.92 days typically off by
- 0.55 days late leans
- 8 days ahead when they call it
- 291 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 31 times, right 71% of the time, off by 11.3 days on average
- Reported said it 137 times, right 83% of the time, off by 8.8 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 120 times, right 94% of the time, off by 3.1 days on average
- Guesswork said it 3 times, right 0% of the time, off by 19 days on average
- 3 IT之家 (ITHome) Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 5.63 days typically off by
- 1.57 days late leans
- 5 days ahead when they call it
- 172 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 31 times, right 61% of the time, off by 20.2 days on average
- Reported said it 50 times, right 82% of the time, off by 4 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 88 times, right 97% of the time, off by 0.9 days on average
- Guesswork said it 3 times, right 67% of the time, off by 22 days on average
- 4 MacRumors Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 3.79 days typically off by
- 2.97 days late leans
- 9 days ahead when they call it
- 480 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 70 times, right 96% of the time, off by 4 days on average
- Reported said it 260 times, right 94% of the time, off by 5.5 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 137 times, right 99% of the time, off by 0.3 days on average
- Guesswork said it 13 times, right 54% of the time, off by 4.4 days on average
- 5 SamMobile Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 7.16 days typically off by
- 2.02 days late leans
- 8 days ahead when they call it
- 136 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 33 times, right 85% of the time, off by 7.6 days on average
- Reported said it 56 times, right 86% of the time, off by 9.3 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 38 times, right 100% of the time, off by 2.3 days on average
- Guesswork said it 9 times, right 56% of the time, off by 12.4 days on average
- 6 ケータイ Watch Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 6.18 days typically off by
- 6.18 days late leans
- 1 days ahead when they call it
- 41 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 12 days on average
- Reported said it 14 times, right 100% of the time, off by 5 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 26 times, right 92% of the time, off by 6.6 days on average
- 7 Google Blog — Pixel Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 0.14 days typically off by
- 0.14 days late leans
- 8 days ahead when they call it
- 29 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Stated as fact said it 29 times, right 100% of the time, off by 0.1 days on average
- 8 Android Headlines Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 12.25 days typically off by
- 9.18 days late leans
- 16 days ahead when they call it
- 40 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 8 times, right 50% of the time, off by 15.2 days on average
- Reported said it 27 times, right 82% of the time, off by 12.2 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 4 times, right 100% of the time, off by 4 days on average
- Guesswork said it 1 time, right 0% of the time, off by 22 days on average
- 9 FoneArena Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 3.71 days typically off by
- 2.34 days late leans
- 6 days ahead when they call it
- 21 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Reported said it 4 times, right 100% of the time, off by 0.2 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 17 times, right 100% of the time, off by 4.5 days on average
- 10 Android Central Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 1.55 days typically off by
- 1.46 days late leans
- 3 days ahead when they call it
- 22 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Reported said it 10 times, right 100% of the time, off by 0.7 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 12 times, right 100% of the time, off by 2.2 days on average
- 11 Android Authority Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 17.09 days typically off by
- 12.88 days late leans
- 8 days ahead when they call it
- 32 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 5 times, right 100% of the time, off by 37 days on average
- Reported said it 17 times, right 77% of the time, off by 17.3 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 9 times, right 100% of the time, off by 2.9 days on average
- Guesswork said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 43 days on average
- 12 爱范儿 (ifanr) Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 6.06 days typically off by
- 3.79 days late leans
- 3.5 days ahead when they call it
- 18 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Reported said it 9 times, right 89% of the time, off by 9.8 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 9 times, right 100% of the time, off by 2.3 days on average
- 13 Tom's Guide Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 14.5 days typically off by
- 14.5 days late leans
- 3 days ahead when they call it
- 14 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Reported said it 11 times, right 36% of the time, off by 15.6 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 3 times, right 100% of the time, off by 10 days on average
- 14 WinFuture Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 37.45 days typically off by
- 37.45 days late leans
- 1 days ahead when they call it
- 47 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 4 times, right 0% of the time, off by 36 days on average
- Reported said it 19 times, right 5% of the time, off by 34.5 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 24 times, right 4% of the time, off by 40 days on average
- 15 Engadget Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 1.71 days typically off by
- 0.14 days early leans
- 13 days ahead when they call it
- 9 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 3 times, right 100% of the time, off by 0 days on average
- Reported said it 4 times, right 100% of the time, off by 2 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 2 times, right 100% of the time, off by 3.5 days on average
- 16 Sammy Fans Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 25.93 days typically off by
- 25.22 days late leans
- 5 days ahead when they call it
- 20 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 2 times, right 100% of the time, off by 4 days on average
- Reported said it 16 times, right 56% of the time, off by 31.4 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 2 times, right 100% of the time, off by 4 days on average
- 17 Digital Chat Station Excellent Found automatically
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 17.59 days typically off by
- 8.98 days late leans
- 30 days ahead when they call it
- 12 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 10 times, right 60% of the time, off by 18 days on average
- Reported said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 12 days on average
- Guesswork said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 12 days on average
- 18 cnBeta Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 11.18 days typically off by
- 4.71 days early leans
- 27 days ahead when they call it
- 8 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 1 time, right 0% of the time, off by 16 days on average
- Reported said it 6 times, right 67% of the time, off by 12 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 1 days on average
- 19 HDblog Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 6.28 days typically off by
- 4.23 days late leans
- 5 days ahead when they call it
- 7 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Reported said it 4 times, right 75% of the time, off by 11 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 3 times, right 100% of the time, off by 0 days on average
- 20 Webtekno Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 18.99 days typically off by
- 18.99 days late leans
- 1.5 days ahead when they call it
- 8 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 43 days on average
- Reported said it 2 times, right 50% of the time, off by 39.5 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 4 times, right 100% of the time, off by 0 days on average
- Guesswork said it 1 time, right 0% of the time, off by 31 days on average
- 21 Ferra.ru Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 1.18 days typically off by
- 0.85 days late leans
- 4 days ahead when they call it
- 6 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Reported said it 4 times, right 100% of the time, off by 1.8 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 2 times, right 100% of the time, off by 0 days on average
- 22 Tecnoblog Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 9.66 days typically off by
- 9.66 days late leans
- 4 days ahead when they call it
- 6 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 1 time, right 0% of the time, off by 31 days on average
- Reported said it 2 times, right 50% of the time, off by 9.5 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 3 times, right 100% of the time, off by 2.7 days on average
- 23 XiaomiTime Excellent
Regularly beats the calendar.
- 57.14 days typically off by
- 29.46 days early leans
- 93 days ahead when they call it
- 23 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 6 times, right 17% of the time, off by 63 days on average
- Reported said it 12 times, right 33% of the time, off by 59.8 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 3 times, right 100% of the time, off by 1.3 days on average
- Guesswork said it 2 times, right 0% of the time, off by 98 days on average
- 24 Apple Developer News Useful
Adds real information.
- 0 days typically off by
- right on leans
- 9 days ahead when they call it
- 5 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Stated as fact said it 5 times, right 100% of the time, off by 0 days on average
- 25 9to5Google Useful
Adds real information.
- 38.26 days typically off by
- 8.41 days early leans
- 6 days ahead when they call it
- 31 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 2 times, right 100% of the time, off by 4 days on average
- Reported said it 16 times, right 69% of the time, off by 72.7 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 13 times, right 100% of the time, off by 3.3 days on average
- 26 The Verge Useful Still proving itself
Adds real information.
- 0.34 days typically off by
- 0.34 days early leans
- 1 days ahead when they call it
- 3 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Reported said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 0 days on average
- Stated as fact said it 2 times, right 100% of the time, off by 0.5 days on average
- 27 Mohammed Khatri Useful Found automatically Still proving itself
Adds real information.
- 43.98 days typically off by
- 43.98 days late leans
- 22 days ahead when they call it
- 2 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Reported said it 2 times, right 100% of the time, off by 44 days on average
- 28 Samsung Global Newsroom Useful
Adds real information.
- 19 days typically off by
- 19 days late leans
- 4.5 days ahead when they call it
- 2 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 1 time, right 0% of the time, off by 19 days on average
- Reported said it 1 time, right 0% of the time, off by 19 days on average
- 29 tipster Useful Found automatically Still proving itself
Adds real information.
- 10.4 days typically off by
- 6.33 days early leans
- 26 days ahead when they call it
- 2 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 2 times, right 50% of the time, off by 10.5 days on average
- 30 Ice Universe Useful Found automatically Still proving itself
Adds real information.
- 71.59 days typically off by
- 41.55 days early leans
- 27 days ahead when they call it
- 3 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 3 times, right 67% of the time, off by 71.3 days on average
- 31 Roland Quandt Useful Found automatically Still proving itself
Adds real information.
- 2 days typically off by
- 2 days late leans
- 10 days ahead when they call it
- 1 call we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Reported said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 2 days on average
- 32 Canaltech Slightly useful Still proving itself
Only a small edge.
- 0 days typically off by
- right on leans
- 1 days ahead when they call it
- 1 call we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Stated as fact said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 0 days on average
- 33 Weibo Slightly useful Found automatically Still proving itself
Only a small edge.
- 1 days typically off by
- 1 days late leans
- 10 days ahead when they call it
- 1 call we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 1 days on average
- 34 Dealabs Slightly useful Found automatically Still proving itself
Only a small edge.
- 4 days typically off by
- 4 days early leans
- 58 days ahead when they call it
- 1 call we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 4 days on average
- 35 Leaks Slightly useful Found automatically Still proving itself
Only a small edge.
- 14 days typically off by
- 14 days late leans
- 18 days ahead when they call it
- 1 call we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Called a rumour said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 14 days on average
- 36 HONOR Newsroom Slightly useful
Only a small edge.
- 47 days typically off by
- 47 days early leans
- 170 days ahead when they call it
- 1 call we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Stated as fact said it 1 time, right 100% of the time, off by 47 days on average
- 37 Cipher Project Slightly useful Found automatically Still proving itself
Only a small edge.
- 91.5 days typically off by
- 91.5 days late leans
- 8 days ahead when they call it
- 2 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Reported said it 2 times, right 0% of the time, off by 91.5 days on average
- 38 Bloomberg's Mark Gurman Not useful yet Found automatically Still proving itself
No better than guessing from the calendar.
- 287 days typically off by
- 287 days late leans
- 13 days ahead when they call it
- 2 calls we could check
Are they honest about how sure they are?
A site that says "maybe" when it means maybe is worth more than a confident coin flip. Here is how often each phrasing turned out right.
- Reported said it 2 times, right 0% of the time, off by 287 days on average
How someone ends up on this list
Nobody is added by hand. Tech sites come from a list of feeds we read. Individual leakers get added automatically once several unrelated sites credit the same name — so the person who actually broke the story gets the credit, not the twenty sites that rewrote it. New names start out barely counting at all, and only earn real influence once enough of their claims have been checked against reality. Anyone who stays worse than simply reading the calendar quietly stops counting.